A nation can have strong institutions and deeply mistrustful citizens. The gap between those two things is where fragility lives. We measure it.
Every country is assigned to one of four quadrants based on where its scores fall.
Trust Health — Tier 1. All 9 countries in the current dataset, scored against the same methodology using primary international sources.
| Country | Structural | Relational | Trust Gap | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
🇩🇰Denmark | 88.0 | 61.9 | +26.1 ⚠ | Efficient But Distant |
🇨🇦Canada | 83.6 | 57.6 | +26.0 ⚠ | Efficient But Distant |
🇯🇵Japan | 81.2 | 51.0 | +30.2 ⚠ | Efficient But Distant ⚠ |
🇩🇪Germany | 80.3 | 53.3 | +27.0 ⚠ | Efficient But Distant ⚠ |
🇬🇧United Kingdom | 72.4 | 48.6 | +23.8 ⚠ | Efficient But Distant |
🇫🇷France | 69.4 | 49.6 | +19.8 | Efficient But Distant |
🇺🇸United States | 66.9 | 49.2 | +17.7 | Efficient But Distant |
🇮🇹Italy | 64.3 | 50.6 | +13.7 | Polarised Democracy |
🇷🇺Russia | 36.5 | 37.3 | −0.8 | Fragile State |
New country assessments are added to the dataset on a rolling basis. Don't see the country you need? You can request a specific country assessment — get in touch to discuss.
A formula-driven framework. Every score is traceable to a named primary source, a specific metric, and an explicit calculation. No black boxes.
The index measures the internal legitimacy of a state across two equally weighted pillars: Structural (how institutions function) and Relational (how much citizens trust them). Each pillar is 50% of the overall score.
Each pillar contains four sub-indicators, weighted equally at 25% within the pillar. Each sub-indicator is built from three metrics, equally weighted and normalised to a 0–100 scale. The headline output is the Trust Gap — the difference between the two pillar scores — not a single composite number.
Four sub-indicators measuring how well institutions function, independent of how citizens feel about them.
Four sub-indicators measuring how much citizens trust the state and one another, independent of how well institutions actually perform.
Every country is assigned to one of four quadrants based on its final Structural and Relational scores. The rules are fixed — no analyst override permitted.
Migration risk flag: Any country with a Trust Gap exceeding 20 points is flagged as at risk of quadrant migration regardless of current quadrant. This indicates that relational legitimacy is deteriorating relative to structural capacity at a rate that has historically preceded quadrant change.
All metrics are drawn from the most recently available edition of each source at the time of scoring. Data year is recorded alongside every metric in the full audit trail.
| Source | Used for | Pillar |
|---|---|---|
| World Bank — Worldwide Governance Indicators | Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Political Stability | Structural |
| Transparency International — CPI | Rule of Law / Corruption sub-indicator | Structural |
| World Justice Project — Rule of Law Index | Rule of Law / Corruption sub-indicator | Structural |
| WEF Global Social Mobility Index | Economic Mobility (−7 outcome adjustment applied) | Structural |
| World Bank — World Development Indicators | Gini coefficient (inverted) | Structural |
| OECD Education at a Glance | Education access in Economic Mobility | Structural |
| Edelman Trust Barometer | Government trust and Media trust (exact figures) | Relational |
| Bertelsmann Stiftung — Social Cohesion Radar | Social Cohesion sub-indicator | Relational |
| World Values Survey | Interpersonal trust in Social Cohesion | Relational |
| V-Dem — Varieties of Democracy | Polarisation index, Liberal Democracy Index, Civil Society score | Relational |
| Reuters Institute Digital News Report | News trust (% trust most news) | Relational |
| RSF — Press Freedom Index | Press freedom (converted: 100 − note score) | Relational |
| International IDEA — Voter Turnout Database | Voter turnout in Civic Participation | Relational |
| OECD / Gallup — Democracy Satisfaction | Democracy satisfaction in Civic Participation | Relational |
Most national indices measure either institutions or sentiment. We measure both — and the distance between them. That distance is the signal.
Nations can have highly functional institutions and deeply mistrustful citizens. Standard indices capture one dimension at a time — governance scores, democracy rankings, press freedom indices. None cross-reference institutional capacity with public legitimacy to produce a single diagnostic picture.
The Trust Gap was designed to fill that space. The headline finding is never just a score — it is the distance between what a state can do and what its citizens believe it will do. That distance is where fragility lives, and where the most important policy questions sit.
The framework is built on primary international data, explicit formulas, and full audit trails. Every number is traceable. Every adjustment is documented.
The Trust Health index speaks to domestic policymakers, civil society organisations, reform advocates, researchers, and anyone who needs to understand the internal legitimacy of a state over time.
The full framework additionally covers Strategic Position and Resilience Band scoring for foreign policy analysts, strategic investors, and long-term planning institutions. Tier 2 and Tier 3 scoring is in development.
Interested in the full dataset, a country briefing, a methodology discussion, or a custom assessment? We'd like to hear from you.
Every assessment produces a structured report with complete narrative, sub-indicator breakdowns, key signals, recommendations, and a full data provenance table. Excel audit trail included on request.
Don't see the country you need? We add new countries regularly and also run assessments on request. Tell us which country you're interested in and we'll be in touch about timing and availability.
The full specification — methodology, formulas, source requirements, and adjustment protocols — is available for research and institutional partners.